DAR ES SALAAM: TANZANIA is expecting normal to above-normal Vuli rains in most areas from September, with strong El Niño conditions increasing the risk of flooding and other weather-related impacts, the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) said.
The rains are expected to begin between the fourth week of September and the second week of October, depending on the area, and continue into January 2027.
The public has been urged to take precautionary measures against the risks like flooding and other related impacts.
Speaking to journalists in Dar es Salaam yesterday, TMA Director-General Dr Ladislaus Chang’a said the El Niño anomaly stood at 2.2 degrees Celsius on August 9 and was expected to intensify further into the “Very Strong” category, defined as above 2.0 degrees Celsius.
“This very strong El Niño will be the main driver of the Vuli rainfall pattern this year. We anticipate average to above-average rains across most areas that experience two rainy seasons,” Dr Chang’a said.
He urged farmers to prepare their fields in good time, adopt proper water-management and soil-conservation practices and harvest rainwater.
Farmers also face risks from excess soil moisture, flooding and outbreaks of fungal, bacterial and viral crop diseases, Dr Chang’a said.
Livestock keepers were advised to remain vigilant against diseases including Rift Valley fever and foot-and-mouth disease, although adequate pasture is expected.
Fisheries and seaweed farmers were also urged to take precautions. Seaweed farmers, in particular, were encouraged to cultivate in deeper waters to minimise the effects of reduced salinity resulting from heavy rainfall.
The expected rains could affect key infrastructure and economic activities. TMA warned that heavy rainfall may damage Standard Gauge Railway and metre-gauge railway lines, cause road erosion, bridge failures and landslides, and disrupt cargo handling at ports.
The aviation sector could also be affected by poor visibility and flight diversions, while construction projects may face delays, increased costs and safety risks to workers.
Local government authorities have been advised to improve drainage systems to minimise flooding, while disaster-management committees at regional, district, ward and village levels should prepare contingency plans.
Health authorities have also been urged to strengthen disease surveillance, particularly for water-borne and mosquito-borne diseases associated with stagnant water.
In the tourism and wildlife sector, increased availability of forage and water is expected to benefit parks and reserves. Authorities have, however, been cautioned about possible increases in human-wildlife conflicts and disease transmission between wildlife and livestock.
The private sector, media and stakeholders in the energy, water and mining sectors have also been urged to put measures in place to minimise losses and take advantage of opportunities arising from the rains.
TMA said detailed district-level forecasts would be issued for the 86 districts located within the bimodal rainfall zone.
Dr Chang’a stressed the importance of continuous monitoring and timely dissemination of weather information to enable communities, institutions and businesses to take appropriate action throughout the season.
According to the outlook, the Lake Victoria basin and northern Kigoma are expected to receive rains from the fourth week of September to the first week of October.
In the northern highlands covering Arusha, Kilimanjaro and Manyara, as well as the northern coast, northern Morogoro and Unguja and Pemba, the rains are expected to begin during the first and second weeks of October.
The rains are forecast to be normal to above normal over most parts of the northern coast, north-eastern highlands, Lake Victoria basin and northern Kigoma.
Dr Chang’a cautioned that El Niño conditions could cause rainfall spells in some areas as early as September, although the official onset of the Vuli season remains in October.
He also said the conditions could trigger an early onset of the November 2026-April 2027 long rains in areas that normally experience a single rainy season.