WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump’s assertion that Iran is close to developing a missile capable of reaching the United States is not backed by current US intelligence assessments and appears to be exaggerated, according to three sources familiar with the reports.
Trump made the claim during his State of the Union address to Congress, arguing that Tehran was “working on missiles that will soon reach” US territory as part of his case for potential military action against Iran.
However, sources said there have been no changes to a 2025 assessment by the US Defense Intelligence Agency, which concluded that Iran could take until 2035 to develop a militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) based on its existing satellite-launch technology.
A White House spokesperson said the President was justified in highlighting concerns about Iran’s missile programme, noting Tehran’s hostile rhetoric and regional activities. Yet the intelligence sources, speaking anonymously to discuss sensitive matters, said they were unaware of any reports indicating Iran was close to fielding missiles capable of striking the US mainland.
One source acknowledged that external technological assistance from countries such as China or North Korea could accelerate progress but estimated it would still take at least eight years for Iran to produce an operational ICBM-level capability.
Iran denies pursuing weapons that could threaten distant targets. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that Tehran limits the range of its missiles to below 2,000 kilometres and insists they are intended for self-defence and deterrence.
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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio adopted a more cautious tone, saying Iran is “on a pathway” toward potential future capabilities but stopping short of endorsing Trump’s claim of an imminent threat.
The dispute comes amid ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme and heightened tensions in the Middle East. The US intelligence community and the International Atomic Energy Agency have said Iran halted an organised nuclear weapons programme in 2003, though Tehran continues to enrich uranium for civilian purposes.
Experts note that Iran possesses the region’s largest ballistic missile arsenal, capable of reaching Israel, US bases and parts of Europe. It has also developed space-launch vehicles that could theoretically be adapted into long-range missiles, although significant technical challenges remain before such systems could carry nuclear warheads.
David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector, said Iran’s space-launch experience allows it to build long-range missiles but that mounting a nuclear-capable re-entry vehicle able to withstand the extreme heat of atmospheric re-entry remains a major hurdle.
Israeli airstrikes in recent years have damaged facilities involved in missile production, further complicating Iran’s development efforts.
